Prototype solar power satellite options

The choice of options for the prototype solar power satellite is addressed relative to risk and cost. Emphasis is placed on the reduction of the risk of failure. Risk is the program cost multiplied by the reduction in probability of program success due to the risky action. Four classes of risk are identified. It is suggested that prototyping would reduce the technical risk as well as reduce the effects of the other three types of risk by allowing them to be quantified earlier. Prototype demonstration requirements addressed include electromagnetic power link feasibility demonstration, component integration verification, construction technology verification, and cost performance verification. Specific prototype requirements are listed and prototyping options are given in tabular form

Continuous-time Markov decision processes under the risk-sensitive average cost criterion

This paper studies continuous-time Markov decision processes under the risk-sensitive average cost criterion. The state space is a finite set, the action space is a Borel space, the cost and transition rates are bounded, and the risk-sensitivity coefficient can take arbitrary positive real numbers. Under the mild conditions, we develop a new approach to establish the existence of a solution to the risk-sensitive average cost optimality equation and obtain the existence of an optimal deterministic stationary policy.Comment: 14 page

The cost-effectiveness of an early interventional strategy in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome based on the RITA 3 trial

The published version of the aritcle can be found at the link below.Background: Evidence suggests that an early interventional strategy for patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) can improve health outcomes but also increase costs when compared with a conservative strategy.Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of an early interventional strategy in different risk groups from a UK health-service perspective.Design: Decision-analytic model based on randomised clinical trial data.Main outcome measures: Costs in UK Sterling at 2003/2004 prices and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combined into an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.Methods: Data from the third Randomised Intervention Trial of unstable Angina (RITA 3) was employed to estimate rates of cardiovascular death and myocardial infarction, costs and health-related quality of life. Cost-effectiveness was estimated over patients' lifetimes within the decision-analytic model.Results: The mean incremental cost per QALY gained for an early interventional strategy was approximately £55000, £22000 and £12000 for patients at low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. The early interventional strategy is approximately 1%, 35% and 95% likely to be cost-effective for patients at low, intermediate and high risk, respectively, at a threshold of £20000 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness of early intervention in low-risk patients is sensitive to assumptions about the duration of the treatment effect.Conclusion: An early interventional strategy in patients presenting with NSTE-ACS is likely to be considered cost-effective for patients at high and intermediate risk, but this is less likely to be the case for patients at low risk

Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning: A Constrained Optimization Viewpoint

The classic objective in a reinforcement learning (RL) problem is to find a policy that minimizes, in expectation, a long-run objective such as the infinite-horizon discounted or long-run average cost. In many practical applications, optimizing the expected value alone is not sufficient, and it may be necessary to include a risk measure in the optimization process, either as the objective or as a constraint. Various risk measures have been proposed in the literature, e.g., mean-variance tradeoff, exponential utility, the percentile performance, value at risk, conditional value at risk, prospect theory and its later enhancement, cumulative prospect theory. In this article, we focus on the combination of risk criteria and reinforcement learning in a constrained optimization framework, i.e., a setting where the goal to find a policy that optimizes the usual objective of infinite-horizon discounted/average cost, while ensuring that an explicit risk constraint is satisfied. We introduce the risk-constrained RL framework, cover popular risk measures based on variance, conditional value-at-risk and cumulative prospect theory, and present a template for a risk-sensitive RL algorithm. We survey some of our recent work on this topic, covering problems encompassing discounted cost, average cost, and stochastic shortest path settings, together with the aforementioned risk measures in a constrained framework. This non-exhaustive survey is aimed at giving a flavor of the challenges involved in solving a risk-sensitive RL problem, and outlining some potential future research directions

The welfare cost of Argentine risk

In this paper we do a couple of things: discussing a way to measure the welfare cost of country risk, and measuring it for Argentina in the period 1875-2006. There are two conclusions: a) the welfare cost of Argentine risk has been huge: for example, in the period 1976-2006 it was around 20% of GDP, several times larger than the welfare cost of any conventional distortion; b) this cost would be wholly paid by labor. These fascinating results deserve further investigation.country risk, welfare cost, growth, Argentina

PERSISTENCE OF PRICE-COST MARGINS IN THE U.S. FOOD AND TOBACCO MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES: A DYNAMIC SINGLE INDEX MODEL APPROACH

Persistence of price-cost margins in the U.S. food and tobacco manufacturing industries is measured while accounting for price-cost margin risk. Direct measurement of persistence and of long- and short-run price-cost margin risk is accomplished by incorporating a partial-adjustment framework into the Single Index Model. Results indicate persistence of price-cost margins. Short-run margin risk is accounted for primarily by diversifiable risk. Long-run margin risk, which depends on systematic risk alone, is generally lower than the short-run measure. Factors influencing persistence and the systematic relationship between industry margins and a market index are explored.Demand and Price Analysis,

Uncertainty of net present value calculations and the impact on applying integrated maintenance approaches to the UK rail industry

The Public performance indicator (PPI) is an important Key Performance Indicator for Network Rail and monitored carefully by the organisation and their external stakeholders. Condition monitoring is of increasing interest within network rail as a suitable method for increasing asset reliability and improving the PPI metric. As condition monitoring methods are identified each will need assessment to establish the cost and benefit. Benefit can be measured in cost savings as poor PPI performance results in fines. Within many industries Net Present Value (NPV) calculations are used to determine how quickly investments will break-even. Cost-risk is a term that is used to describe the financial impact of an unexpected event (a risk). This paper outlines a more detailed approach to calculating NPV which considers the cost-risk effect of changes of the denial of service charging rate. NPV prediction is of importance when assessing when to deploy different fault detection strategies to maintenance issues, and therefore the cost-risk of the NPV calculation should be used to support asset management decisions